07 May2010

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With just three days to go before the elections, the polls are showing some interesting results. Some folks have asked if I really believe the polls, and I have to say that I do believe in RELIABLE polls, and the two that come to mind locally are the SWS and Pulse Asia polls. As a numbers person by profession, I do believe that carefully selected samples can be used to extrapolate results for a much larger population. I understand that there are reasonable margins for error, but in general, unless grossly biased and improperly conducted, polls can give a pretty good picture of the likely results in an election. Anyone who doubts this should simply go back and check the polls for the last few Presidential elections, and they would probably find that in MOST, not all, cases, the numbers were reasonably close to the actual results. If you remain sceptical about this, Mr. Mangahas’ editorial/article about this in a national broadsheet and also posted on SWS’s site is worth a read. So I am thrilled that the latest SWS polls leaked today, and officially out Friday in Businessworld, that shows Noynoy Aquino with some 42% of the possible votes, while Estrada has come up to some 20%, and Villar has fallen further to 19%. Gibo remains below 10%. The over 20% gap between Noy and the next closest candidate indicates the potential for a LANDSLIDE victory, unless shenanigans in the voting process or counting of the votes occurs on a massive scale. Unless something catastrophic occurs between now and Monday, Noy seems to be reasonably safe. Honestly, I think this shift is more due to the “implosion” of the Villar campaign than a sudden surge in Noy’s numbers…

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But the Vice-Presidential race is heating up, with SWS apparently reporting a possible neck and neck race between Mar Roxas and Jojo Binay at roughly 37% apiece. That is definitely a concern. Along with Villar’s decline in the polls has come Legarda’s apparent precipitous slide down to some 12% or so, losing HALF of her support in less than a month, with most of her supporters apparently (based on the gross numbers) now saying they are likely to vote for Binay instead. It will definitely be interesting what the Pulse Asia results show in their last poll on this race, out late Friday or early Saturday.

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The Vice-Presidency is often viewed as a much less important position in government, and previous vice-presidents have wallowed in the shadows of their Presidents. But I would argue that the VP is a heartbeat away from the Presidency, and as such, the VP should be selected with as much care and thought as a Presidential candidate. Mrs. MM and I have been supporting Mar Roxas for several years now, and when he chose to step down from the Presidential race to make way for Noynoy to run, we thought it was an amazing gesture. Mar is intelligent, competent, qualified, experienced, and honest. He will definitely get our votes, and I hope, many of yours as well…

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In the last three or four weeks, I have travelled to several provincial cities and visited dozens of markets to privately campaign for Mar and Noynoy. Markets, as you probably know well, are my thing, and I was thrilled to see that from Northern Palawan to Bohol, Cebu to Batangas, Benguet to Manila, Mar and Noy were extremely well thought of, and we were constantly mobbed by crowds in the various markets, fish landing posts, vegetable trading centers, etc. What were often meant to be low key private market visits to document local produce, speak with vendors and hand out some ballers sometimes turned into a crush of folks seeking Mar and Noy materials. Many of the photos here were taken at those markets, and in most cases, the vendors were ALREADY proudly wearing their Mar aprons, and our own stock was depleted at warp speed.

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Fish, meat, vegetable, bagoong, carinderia vendors for Mar…

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Marketman and crew at the Carbon market where we were mobbed for Mar’s aprons (a great campaign material, if I may so myself… practical, re-usable, and will be seen by hundreds of people)…

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…thank goodness I am a bit taller than most, as I managed to maintain access to air while this crowd emptied my pockets and bag of hundreds of ballers. Another one of the crew in the middle of a crowd asking for Mar and Noy ballers.

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Now that the elections are just hours away, I ask you all to think carefully about your choice of candidates, and to make sure you get out and vote. Marketman and family STRONGLY support the candidacy of MAR ROXAS for Vice President. We believe Mar and Noy together make a powerful team that will work for the good of this country and its people. Marketman for Mr. Palengke!!! GO MAR!!! :)

 

COMMENTS:

  1. Hunter says:

    i knew Mar Roxas when he worked in investment banking. he will be a very good VP!

    May 7, 2010 | 12:16 am

     
  2. marilen says:

    Praying for Noynoy and Mar to win – until then we are waiting to exhale!

    May 7, 2010 | 12:51 am

     
  3. Dimmpss says:

    I believe too that Noy and Mar will make a good tandem for the betterment of our country.

    May 7, 2010 | 1:15 am

     
  4. Gej says:

    NOY-MAR!!!

    May 7, 2010 | 1:36 am

     
  5. kahlil says:

    Mar should have never given his slot for presidency. He should have trusted in himself that his supporters will follow him, instead he gave in to Noy because their party took advantage of the sudden popularity of Noy during Cory’s passing. Looks to me that they are using advantage of the sympathetic Filipinos and that is why I doubt him now.

    May 7, 2010 | 1:48 am

     
  6. pegi says:

    If I can just vote, I will surely go for the Noy- Mar Team. Why? Because I believe they are the ones that can stop graft and corruption in the Philippines. I can feel that they are honest and dependable and can improve the lives of Filipinos who are suffering from poverty. Go. go NOy- Mar! Noy- Mar means “HOPE”.

    May 7, 2010 | 3:59 am

     
  7. wayne says:

    i can’t vote… but if i had the choice, i’d go for gibo and roxas…

    filipinos focus too much on “corruption” – it’s a cultural thing… it’s not only the politicians!
    it always starts with the sentence “bigyan mo lang yan ng… ayos na!” – it’s actually the pinoy lifestyle, IMHO…
    people are waiting for a “messiah” to heal their world, when in fact they the people need to get their act straight – yes, that includes us “balikbayans”..!

    anyway, good luck philippines…

    May 7, 2010 | 4:30 am

     
  8. Vanessa says:

    Thank you for this post, Marketman. I’ve been alarmed as well by the surge of Jejomar Binay. I completely agree with you, the vice president is a heartbeat way from the presidency. Mar Roxas is more than qualified to be president of this country; none of the other vice presidential candidates can say the same. I’m actively campaigning for Mar Roxas, too. He needs every vote.

    May 7, 2010 | 5:25 am

     
  9. sunshines_mommy says:

    There is no perfect candidate. We’ve run the gamut from midnight cabinets to highly qualified and even brilliant leaders… what’s left is the factor of integrity. Gilbert Teodoro looks great on paper, but not to denounce his benefactress is equal to his agreeing and supporting her. It’s moral cowardice. Don’t we teach our kids to stand for the truth, for what’s right? Noynoy may not have a Harvard degree and Mar may have played the political game in stepping down, but nobody can accuse them of theft. We have nowhere to go but up. And with a yellow and blue vote we actually have that chance.

    May 7, 2010 | 6:34 am

     
  10. Artisan Chocolatier says:

    I agree with you MM, we need MAR as VP. We need to ensure that MAR also wins by a wide margin come May 10. Let’s all go out and campaign for him. MAR is not only a good man, but also very qualified to become our next VP.

    May 7, 2010 | 6:53 am

     
  11. Enteng says:

    My vote will go to Noynoy and Mar!!!

    May 7, 2010 | 8:32 am

     
  12. JMLR says:

    My problem with Noynoy is he did not perform well in his 3 terms as a congressman and 3 years as a senator. With all his privilege, given his pedigree, he had the opportunity to create an impact as a legislator but he just stayed in the sidelines. He joined causes but was not in the forefront. He just followed the dictates of the people around him. His decision to run for president is an example of this. I am not convinced that he will do any better when he is elected president of the country. Mar would have been a better presidential candidate.

    May 7, 2010 | 8:43 am

     
  13. terrey says:

    the hubby and I casted our votes for Noy-Mar last Wed. most of the Pinoys here are for them as well!

    May 7, 2010 | 10:49 am

     
  14. aji says:

    I’m not really keen on Noy for President. I don’t think he made any significant impact during his term as congressman and senator. He has the surname to back it up but in terms of performance…hmmm. If only Mar ran for president as planned. Bummer.

    May 7, 2010 | 11:18 am

     
  15. kitchen says:

    Mr. Palenke, in english Marketman! :) @Wayne me too.

    May 7, 2010 | 11:40 am

     
  16. Artisan Chocolatier says:

    @kitchen…hmmmm……Mr. Palengke for President and Mr. Marketman for Vice President in 2016, now that’s a solid winner!!!

    But first, let’s make sure Mr. Palengke makes it as VP in 2010!

    May 7, 2010 | 12:03 pm

     
  17. chreylle says:

    honestly, if only nicanor perlas has a chance to win, i will not hesitate to vote for him, (the only candidate using SOYA ink for his campaign material,an environmentalist talaga) but the problem is, i dnt see any chance of winning,.in case of Noy, ur right JMLR, he is always “behind on the screen” but as i thought, he is the only candidate ( in terms of chance of winning) with really a CLEAN GOOD record,. so definitely, il go for NOY-MAR tandem, maybe also because i like Kris too much :D … Mr. MM, election is 3 days na lng, but i still dnt knw where we can get that baller, i see lot of people wearing it, but we dnt have eh :(

    May 7, 2010 | 12:15 pm

     
  18. Bubut says:

    from the start of the campaign, i go for Noy – Mar! we will pray that they will win in this election for a brand new Philippines. God bless us all !!!

    May 7, 2010 | 12:24 pm

     
  19. tuhashaligi says:

    Gibo-Mar is the best combo. I would have wanted Mar as president now and Gibo for the next term. Gibo and Mar don’t concede any qualities when compared to Noynoy. If Noynoy wins I pray that Mar wins also otherwise Noynoy will feel like he’s sinking in quicksand within the first 3 months.

    May 7, 2010 | 12:48 pm

     
  20. cleverpea says:

    If I can vote, I’d go for Villar or Gibo for President!!! Noynoy doesn’t have anything under his belt BUT the fact that he IS an Aquino and nothing else! I like Mar Roxas! I’d vote for him! :)

    May 7, 2010 | 1:08 pm

     
  21. Quillene says:

    MAR has definitely been my only VP choice. I was afraid baka di maalagaan ang lead niya, and with Binay breathing down his neck, m going to pray hard for him to get the post .

    In choosing candidates, I also choose for those who can carry / represent the country well among international heads of state and Mar fits the bill to a “T”.

    May 7, 2010 | 1:38 pm

     
  22. Jake Speed says:

    Will voting for Noynoy and Mar tomorrow at the Philippine Embassy in Singapore. Note that there will be 31,851 overseas absentee voters here in Singapore. Voting period is from April 10 to May 10.

    May 7, 2010 | 1:56 pm

     
  23. green eggs says:

    @sunshines_mommy- Gilbert Teodoro never denounced GMA. Please get your facts straight before making such statements. You can watch the debates as he has been asked this question several times. Candidates who flip-flop on their stands are the ones who show moral cowardice.

    I VOTE GILBERT TEODORO!!!

    May 7, 2010 | 2:05 pm

     
  24. Glenda says:

    Mar is a competent VP. He has the credentials, the right principles and the heart to lead.

    May 7, 2010 | 2:54 pm

     
  25. Ana (AdoboRice.com) says:

    I found that really scary – that Erap is actually on second place. I decided to leave the country when he was president.

    May 7, 2010 | 2:57 pm

     
  26. mkfinds says:

    mar has my vote! mar did an admirable and uncommon act when he gave way and prioritized country and party over his own political ambition. he has done his part, it’s time that we do our part to win him the vp position.

    May 7, 2010 | 3:16 pm

     
  27. fried-neurons says:

    I can’t vote, but if I could, I would probably go Teodoro for President and Roxas for Veep.

    May 7, 2010 | 3:47 pm

     
  28. Ley says:

    Our family is also campaigning for Noynoy and Mar!

    May 7, 2010 | 5:09 pm

     
  29. MrsKookie says:

    I will not vote for Noynoy but Mar Roxas has my vote.

    Since it seems that my candidate may lose to Noynoy, the latter would need a partner for VP to help him realize his goals for the country. And if and when Mar wins and runs for President in 2016, there will be continuity which is best for this country.

    May 7, 2010 | 5:35 pm

     
  30. Susie says:

    Gibo has my vote for president. Mar has my vote for VP. I would have had to think about it if Mar hadn’t stepped down for Noy and I had to choose between him and Gilbert. As it is, there is nobody else I would vote for as VP.

    I’m sorry but I have seen Noy in action and he has never ever ever impressed me. Always thought he was the weakest link in that family. A good man doesn’t necessarily make a good president and I sincerely hope that he can do the job.

    May 7, 2010 | 6:24 pm

     
  31. art says:

    Pinoy Surfergirls and surferboys for Blue Waves, and Yellow Sunshine!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNyeG9-eYTM

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNr1duaBefE

    May 7, 2010 | 7:04 pm

     
  32. Raneli says:

    Mar takes the ticket for VP but as for Noynoy,he does not sit well with me for President. I’d ratherr vote for Gibo for President as he is credible both locally and internationally. Same goes for Mar.

    May 7, 2010 | 7:11 pm

     
  33. SD says:

    It’s Gibo-Mar for me as well.

    May 7, 2010 | 7:20 pm

     
  34. vicki2 says:

    Oh no, we NEED Mar to win, he’s actually the most competent of everyone running.

    May 7, 2010 | 7:43 pm

     
  35. Nanna says:

    I hope Mar wins! I don’t really see any difference if it’s Gibo or Noynoy who wins the presidency as long as Mar gets the vice-presidency. I think Mar will be able to work with them both, and gear up for his presidency in six years time~

    May 7, 2010 | 8:31 pm

     
  36. chinky says:

    Was unsure of voting for Mar as President. But when he stepped down to run as VP(even though you can say it was a smart political move), he gained so much credibility and did not seem so power-hungry after all. We need him as VP

    May 7, 2010 | 8:40 pm

     
  37. Jack Hammer says:

    @Artisan Choco…..I second you….MM for VP 2016… I could even be on his campaign team.

    Viva Las Philippines. Viva MM.

    May 7, 2010 | 9:08 pm

     
  38. chrisb says:

    Mar gets my vote for VP and I never considered voting for anyone else. Binay is just like Erap, in my opinion. I have to say there was a time I was a little turned off by Mar. This was during the boy padyak, boy bawang and the public cussing episodes. But stepping down for Noy won him back my respect.

    As for Teodoro, no matter how qualified he and his supporters say he is, I don’t think I can live with his decision to stick it out with Arroyo and her party. And if his performance during Ondoy and Pepeng is any indication of his leadership skills, then it doesn’t bode well for him. He looked like a lost boy at the height of that disaster. I remember him giving an interview on TV where he assured the people that they were doing everything that they can to rescue thousands of people who were stranded in their rooftops and that rescue boats have been deployed. When asked how many boats exactly have been deployed, he hesitated for a moment before giving the answer- 2 rubber boats!

    May 7, 2010 | 9:39 pm

     
  39. Melanie says:

    Yes!!!! Noynoy for President and Mar for Vice president! Their posters on our gate and the yellow ribbons on the whole length of our front wall has made our friends ask whether we have turned our place into a campaign center for the Liberal Party. hahaha

    May 7, 2010 | 10:03 pm

     
  40. myra_p says:

    I was always taught that I could do more working WITH my enemies than against them, so I don’t take it against Gibo for sticking it out with GMA. There is no question I am glad she is gone, but I firmly believe that Gibo did the best of a bad, bad situation. So he had 2 rubber boats at his disposal, but the guy was in the position for barely 2 years. And I take it as a good thing that he didn’t try to fudge or gloss over the lack of resources. He just told it like it was.

    If the way he is running his very positive, zero-mudslinging campaign is any sign of how he plans to run my country, then I’m even more hopeful than ever. As much as people disdain his affiliation with the current administration, I have heard his own opponents say they respect him.

    He can unite the opposition, and unite our broken country with hard work. He’s got a cool head. He’s young, intelligent, and POSITIVE, plus, he has the most organized, informed platform. No motherhood statements and no promises of Utopia.

    And with a VP like Mar…. I can really see this country entering a new, young, modern and fresh era of politics.

    Gibo-Mar in 2010!

    May 8, 2010 | 1:00 am

     
  41. Doddie from Korea says:

    I’m sorry to see a lot of people voting for Noynoy because of his “pedigree”, if he puts a lot of importance to his late parents’ upbringing, can he explain the existence of “Kris”? Sorry, we don’t need an overly emotional, unimaginative and weak politician as a president. No to Noynoy. (even his name says it twice – NO NO)

    But yes to Mar and Gibo (who I voted for last Sunday in the Phil. Embassy in Seoul)

    May 8, 2010 | 1:33 am

     
  42. chrisb says:

    Well, truth be told, if Noy doesn’t win, I sure hope Gibo does. At least then, at the end of 6 years we can be assured of 8 boats total! ; )

    But seriously, Gibo is diminished by Gloria precisely because they are not enemies to begin with. They are more like mentor and protege or maybe Queen and pawn. He cannot use Gloria’s resources, the much vaunted party machinery, and distance himself from her at the same time.

    For what it’s worth, I do mean the first sentence. Just couldn’t resist the joke =) Gibo would be my 2nd choice (a far 2nd).

    May 8, 2010 | 1:35 am

     
  43. sunshines_mommy says:

    @green eggs: Exactly. Teodoro never denounced GMA, and I WISH he would! Then he’d possibly have my vote!

    May 8, 2010 | 1:54 am

     
  44. captain_yagit says:

    “Kung walang corrupt, walang mahirap” somehow does not have a strong impact on me considering that there are old, familiar faces who have been in politics for a long time backing LP’s campaign. Call me a cynic, but I think this is still the old politics masquerading as a new one.

    My rationale in choosing my candidates for P and VP is simple. I believe that executive positions require individuals with executive skills. Therefore, it is Dick Gordon and Bayani Fernando for me.

    May 8, 2010 | 2:04 am

     
  45. myra_p says:

    He can’t hack it: http://www.tribuneonline.org/commentary/20100507com2.html

    … And what if Mar doesn’t win? Noy Noy will have to “power-share” with Binay. I’m sorry, but THAT is a thought that really makes me quake in my boots.

    May 8, 2010 | 2:15 am

     
  46. Tonito says:

    I hope this scene from the movie The Candidate a 1972 film starring Robert Redford as a senatorial candidate named Bill McKay and his political consultant Peter Boyle as Marvin Lucas does not get replayed after the May 10 elections in the Philippines. After winning a hard-fought election and winning, McKay asks Lucas: “Marvin…what do we do now?”

    May 8, 2010 | 6:15 am

     
  47. lettucedude says:

    Gibo – Mar!

    May 8, 2010 | 8:37 am

     
  48. Tricia says:

    I hope you don’t mind GIBO-MAR. Noynoy doesn’t cut it for me.

    And besides, do you know that in the country side, so many of Noynoy’s people/candidates are pushing for Noy-Binay??? I could not believe it until the surveys came out. There are many explanations to this.

    But I refuse to believe GIBO is only less 10% in the surveys. Wala lang kibo kaming mga GIBO!!!

    May 8, 2010 | 2:07 pm

     
  49. Epi says:

    I can’t help but think of Ted Kennedy the carefree younger brother, always behind the scenes, content not being in the limelight and considered most unlikely to live up to the accomplishments of his 3 elders brothers. In the end he surprised us all. Given the chance,I just pray Noy will have enough of his father and mother in him rise up to the Challenge and prove to us He can Indeed make the Changes this country needs.

    May 8, 2010 | 2:28 pm

     
  50. Jun Bautista says:

    If this race was based on common sense and qualifications, I would have wanted it to be a Gordon – Gibo – Mar scenario. Too much uncertainty with the rest of the candidates, including Noynoy. Just my .02 cents.

    May 8, 2010 | 2:54 pm

     
  51. chloe says:

    Gibo for me! I like the way he conducts his campaign-Positivity not Negativity.

    Am still choosing a VP.

    May 8, 2010 | 5:22 pm

     
  52. green eggs says:

    @sunshines_mommy – i’m sorry you cannot see beyond that notion of GMA gibo alliance. in my personal opinion, what Gibo represents and what he stands for encompasses all that. I’d rather put my vote in his capable hands.

    May 8, 2010 | 6:47 pm

     
  53. Jannah says:

    MM, Mar Roxas is very fortunate to have a very passionate supporter from your family. I hope and pray that he wins, Phils surely needed someone like him.

    May 8, 2010 | 9:05 pm

     
  54. sunshines_mommy says:

    @green eggs: no, you misunderstood me, it is not the “notion of … alliance” (because i never thought there was one), but the silence that bothers me. as an aside, thanks for the back and forth… it is helping to clear my mind because i do have a 2nd choice (strangely enough).

    May 8, 2010 | 9:05 pm

     
  55. cecille says:

    I’m for Gibo as president. Gibo for his experience and success as a lawmaker and administrator. I still think there are a lot of undecided who will vote for GIBO in the end and this is not reflected in the current surveys. There are also the silent majority in the schools, hospitals, offices, etc. who are just coming out now to voice their support for Gibo. It’s not too late. Mar for VP.

    May 9, 2010 | 7:47 am

     
  56. MarkF says:

    My vote will not go for Noynoy… sorry NoyNoy supporters but the word sympathy doesn’t apply here. We need a great leader that can turn this country at its best. We need a leader that have a combination of Passion, Intelligence and a track record in Effective Leadership. So I will be voting on Richard Gordon. But for Mar’s case, he will surely get my vote. Mar’s dedication and contribution to this country qualify him for the presidency seats rather than Noy. I will hope all of you do some research first before voting, this country need change and it will only change if we vote the best of the best.

    May 9, 2010 | 10:52 am

     
  57. giancarlo says:

    Noy-Mar FTW!

    May 9, 2010 | 1:28 pm

     
  58. Doc says:

    New politics is positive, appeals to intellect, sense of reason, and nationalism. New politics is unifying, not divisive. New politics is based on a system of merit and competence.

    It might take another elections to get the message through, but thank you Gilbert Teodoro for showing us the way it is done.

    May 10, 2010 | 4:34 pm

     
  59. dodi says:

    If I remember right, Noynoy himself said that he will be sharing presidential duties (50% – 80%) with Mar if ever they win as a tandem, but in the event of a Binay Vice-Presidency, will Noynoy still entertain such thoughts? Just thinking aloud….

    May 12, 2010 | 12:44 pm

     
  60. Lex says:

    It is beginning to show what kind of person Noynoy is. He has not even been proclaimed, he is already making so many proclamations of negativity. Now that the prospects of his vice presidents are dim makes me wonder what he is going to do. This guy never did anything in congress and neither in the senate. God bless our country who voted out of sympathy. We get the government that we deserve. Now we are stuck with his youngest sister and her incredibly annoying habit of washing her laundry in public.

    May 15, 2010 | 9:16 am

     
 

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