09 May2010

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I have two crystal balls. It’s NOT what you think, silly. :) One sits on my desk at home and another at a makeshift table/desk I use at the beach. I do not believe you can gaze into a crystal ball and see the future, so I am not sure what attracted me to them in the first place. Perhaps they are more a reminder that your future is really primarily up to you. I firmly believe you can and should control more of your own destiny, rather than waiting for it to just happen, or worse, blaming someone else for your misfortune. Don’t get me wrong, the concept of others (living, dead or spiritual) laying out various paths, or opportunities, or choices for you is something I can totally grasp… But as I get older and older, I realize it is more about the DECISIONS one makes (or doesn’t make) in life that really shapes your destiny. What educational credentials you seek (assuming you had a choice), family and friendships, how well to apply one’s self at work or play, choice of career(s), where to anchor your moral compass, how you deal with life, marriage, kids, divorce, death, etc. are the essential building blocks of the journey one takes in the 75 odd years average human lifespan these days. It is my PERSONAL observation that many folks seem to make decisions without seeking sufficient data nor do they analyze that data logically to reach informed conclusions. Many folks seem to rely on gut feel (and if you have been right 90% of the time, why not?), on the opinion of others, on conventional “wisdom” or common sense which isn’t common, or whatever else suits them. This approach is not wrong, it’s just a different way of looking at things. In the same way that these three photos of one crystal ball reflect different images…

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It does drive me a little batty when folks make assertions to me (verbally, through comments or emails) that don’t seem to be anchored on fact and reasonable amounts of analysis. Several readers have emailed me to question my mention and “reliance” on opinion polls for the Presidential elections to be held tomorrow. So here are some of my PERSONAL views on the opinion polls, and for fun, my own predictions for the outcomes of tomorrow’s elections, ASSUMING no massive fraud takes place. Opinion polls are used extensively in many countries. They are used to determine whether you would prefer white or light blue toothpaste, diet or regular soda, whether a controversial law has enough public support, or how many people are likely to vote for a particular candidate. And all these polls are based on what most average folks deem to be incredibly small samples of say 2-3,000 people out of populations of several tens of millions. But if done well (or scientifically), polls can and often DO predict the actual pulse of the population, given a statistically determined margin of error. So opinion polls are simply a tool, and its particularly interesting to see if what was predicted does in fact pan out in reality (e.g., elections for public officials). As for making one’s choice(s) of candidates, and whether polls influence your choice(s), that is another topic altogether. For the purposes of this post, I am assuming the vast majority of marketmanila readers have brains of their own and will pick their candidates as they see fit, whether or not they take opinion polls into account…

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Okay, to the specific polls that I mentioned in previous posts, SWS and Pulse Asia. If readers had bothered to do some BASIC research, and read this interesting paper “The Challenge of Election Surveys: SWS Experience in the Philippines” presented at a forum in Cairo last November (please google, I don’t know how to link a PDF file), among other sources, then they would have known that based on SWS final surveys done roughly a week before the last three Presidential elections in 1992, 1998 and 2004, they accurately predicted the winner for President in ALL three elections (Ramos, Estrada and Arroyo). And they predicted the winners for ALL three Vice-Presidential candidates (Estrada, Arroyo, De Castro) as well. It’s NOT easy to guess the results of a coin toss 6 times in a row, so there must be more substance to these pollsters than the naysayers seem willing to believe. As for whether the polls are impartial, owned by distant relations of candidates, then how would you explain the wide range of winners they predicted in the past? From Ramos, to Estrada to Arroyo and now to Aquino, are we really to believe the polls were manipulated somehow by all these disparate candidates? Really now. So the polls aren’t perfect, and certainly leave room for error, and they jumped by as much as 8-9% up or down for some candidates in the final week of the campaign, but they still resulted in accurate predictions of the ultimate winners. As for the senators (with over 60 running and vying for 12 slots) the numbers are far more complicated, but still the polls called the TOP 8-9 candidates with very good accuracy in the last 3 elections, and understandably left wiggle room for the final 3-4 candidates who were statistically much closer in numbers than the TOP 9. So those readers who have doubts, you MAY CERTAINLY refuse to accept opinion polls as a barometer of public opinion, but the numbers wouldn’t logically support your position. And again, I agree there are EXCEPTIONS, and occasional statistical surprises, but these instances are less common than many would hope. And yes, SWS bases their predictions based on just 2-3,000 people polled, and extrapolates this data to tens of millions of the voting population.

Knowing what I know now, the published opinion polls of SWS and Pulse Asia, the teeny tiny predominantly “A” audience poll results on marketmanila.com, and my own PERSONAL BEST GUESSES, let me estimate where I think the results will end up tomorrow. If I am totally wrong, so be it, and I promise never to work for a polling company in the future. I have never done this before, so it’s simply a “game” I pursue purely for amusement purposes. I post my wild predictions this evening not to attempt to sway your vote one way or the other, more as a personal challenge to see just how close or far off my guesses will turn out…

PRESIDENT: Noynoy Aquino by landslide (greater than 15% points over next candidate)
1. Noy Aquino – Range: 41-46%
2. Erap Estrada – Range: 20-25%
3. Manny Villar – Range: 17-22%
4. Gibo Teodoro – Range: 11-16%

VICE-PRESIDENT: Mar Roxas in a close contest, but since I am biased and applying some “positive energy” his way, I will say win by 5% or more :)
1. Mar Roxas – Range: 40-45%
2. Jojo Binay – Range: 37-42%
3. Loren Legarda – Range: 14-19%

VOTER PARTICIPATION RATE – Range: 73-78%, less than the often quoted 80% participation rate…

PLEASE REMEMBER TO VOTE TOMORROW!!!

Back to food programming soon… including two incredibly LENGTHY and MEATY liempo (pork belly) posts… :)

 

COMMENTS:

  1. Footloose says:

    Yes seeree!

    May 9, 2010 | 10:09 pm

     
  2. chrisb says:

    I’m looking forward to the liempo posts. And to Noy and Mar winning =)

    May 9, 2010 | 10:34 pm

     
  3. Trish says:

    i agree!!!

    May 9, 2010 | 10:35 pm

     
  4. Artisan Chocolatier says:

    My personal gut feel is MAR will also win by a large margin. I feel The surveys did not impute the endorsements (for MAR) by religious organizations.

    May 9, 2010 | 10:43 pm

     
  5. Artisan Chocolatier says:

    Here’s something to ponder as we sleep tonight.

    1. Of all the candidates, who is the one candidate that I don’t want to win in tomorrow’s election?

    2. Where does my candidate stand (be honest now) vis-a-vis the above candidate?

    3. If my candidate is way below the candidate mentioned in no.1, am I willing to make the extreme sacrifice to save my country, by voting for the candidate that will ensure that the candidate I don’t want to win will not make it?

    We all rooted for our respective candidates for the past 90 days and we should all consider ourselves winners for getting this far, without anyone losing their presidential and vice-presidential candidates.

    May 9, 2010 | 11:00 pm

     
  6. pia l. says:

    The way i see it, these polls have become some sort of self-fulfilling prophecies. Through no fault of their own, surveys have informally changed our electoral system into a runoff voting type of system.

    I don’t really care about the poll results though, I’m still voting for whom I think is the most capable candidate of them all.

    May 9, 2010 | 11:15 pm

     
  7. Tonito says:

    I have a pair myself but they are brass. I totally agree with your predictions.

    May 10, 2010 | 12:05 am

     
  8. kahlil says:

    have you seen the news circulating yesterday? About the drug money connecting to the campaign funds of LP? It’s in the tribunal, manila bulletin and philstar.

    May 10, 2010 | 2:14 am

     
  9. Marketman says:

    MARKETMAN & CREW HAVE ALL VOTED!

    It went very smoothly, taking a total of 15 minutes from start to finish. Though neighboring precincts had a 20-30 minute wait before getting their ballots. I was suprised to see that our sub-precinct had only 86 registered voters, and “our” PCOS machine was meant to handle only a total of some roughly 650 registered voters, and at say 80% turnout, that means it would only register some 520+ votes today in some 11 hours that the polls were open. The ballots were on thicker gauge paper, and the voting process was fairly straightforward and easy. My ballot was accepted by the machine on the first try, as were most of the ones I saw this morning. I asked a poll watcher if any ballots had been rejected and as of 8:40 am or 100 minutes after the polls opened, only 1 out of 125 votes cast had been rejected. That is statistically reasonable from this one teeny tiny sample.

    I was impressed that the voter lists had photos of most of the voters, and the paperwork required to find one’s name, place your signature after voting, thumbmark and indelible ink went quickly and smoothly. I am sure there are some problems in larger precincts around the country, but if our experience was any indication, it bodes well for this part of the process…

    Now we can only hope that the tallies are correct, and transmitted quickly and the winners declared within days… GET OUT THERE AND CAST YOUR VOTE!

    May 10, 2010 | 9:11 am

     
  10. linda says:

    I HOPE NOY AND MAR WINS!!!!!!

    May 10, 2010 | 9:37 am

     
  11. junb says:

    Looks like by tomorrow we will all know who will be Philippines next president….One thin for sure I will still reading MarketManila.

    Anxiously waiting for that Liempo Pork posting !!!!!

    May 10, 2010 | 9:42 am

     
  12. Booey says:

    wow! that was fast, your precinct is a model one! I’m have yet to cast my vote, got there at 8AM but I’m still waiting to get my ballot (I’m no. 113)… Hope people stay in line to cast their votes!

    May 10, 2010 | 9:57 am

     
  13. Grayzo says:

    Wow, MM, congratulations on being able to vote early! Am keeping tabs on the news (and friends’ FB posts as they are waiting in line) and am worried about the slow pace of opening of precincts and voting.

    Regardless of who I DON’T want to win (and I feel that with a passion), I’m not willing to vote for someone else just to make sure that person doesn’t win. Of course, I wish that our ballots had an option “Anybody but ______________” (and that vote would be deducted from the actual votes for that candidate!) but since that doesn’t exist, I will still go with my candidate regardless. Vote your minds and hearts, people. God bless us all!

    Looking forward to your next liempo posts! =)

    May 10, 2010 | 10:27 am

     
  14. Tess Mercado says:

    Today, husband and I decided to practice our “Right to Vote” after abstaining for the past 3 presidents. We went to our polling precinct at 7am and was able to cast our vote after more than 2 hours of waiting…. hay aside from pamaypay, bottled water and small towel you should bring also mahabang mahabang mahabang mahabang ….. pasensiya!

    May 10, 2010 | 10:40 am

     
  15. natie says:

    listening to live streaming Phil radio stations and TV stations on the internet…i’m anxious but also excited..this could be the turning point our country badly needs..thanks, MM, for your update and political analysis..

    May 10, 2010 | 10:59 am

     
  16. Jaja says:

    Bilis ah! My mom went to her precinct at around 8am and she still has not cast her vote until now :( I’m looking forward to the liempo posts!!!

    May 10, 2010 | 12:00 pm

     
  17. Joey in Dubai says:

    MM, thanks for the feedback on your voting experience this morning. Today, I’m actually more excited to know how the country’s first automated elections went. I’ll be waiting for the experts to declare that the elections was generally successful and if that is so, we should congratulate the whole nation for a job well done.

    May 10, 2010 | 12:24 pm

     
  18. Marketman says:

    AT THIS POINT, VARIOUS REPORTS SUGGEST SOME 300+ PCOS MACHINES ARE NOT WORKING, BUT THAT IS LESS THAN 1/2 OF 1% OF THE 70,000+ MACHINES NATIONWIDE.

    IF YOU ARE VOTING THIS AFTERNOON, TAKE NOTE OF THE NUMBER COUNT OF YOUR VOTE ON THE PCOS MACHINE. WITH A MAXIMUM 1,000 VOTERS PER MACHINE, THE AVERAGE NUMBER OF VOTES PER HOUR IS ROUGHLY 80 VOTES CAST. SO BY 1 PM, THE MACHINE YOU ARE USING SHOULD HAVE REGISTERED 400+ VOTES OR SO. IF THE NUMBER IS DRAMATICALLY BELOW THAT, THEN EXPECT VOTING IN YOUR PRECINCT TO HEAD LATER INTO THE NIGHT, OR YOUR NEIGHBORS SIMPLY HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO CAST THEIR VOTE. AS OF 830AM THIS MORNING, I WAS NUMBER 125TH VOTE CAST IN OUR PRECINCT, RIGHT ON THE MARK FROM AN “AVERAGE” PERSPECTIVE.

    POLL HOURS HAVE ALREADY BEEN EXTENDED TO 7PM, ACCORDING TO THE COMELEC. PLEASE DON’T GET DISCOURAGED BY THE LINES IN YOUR PRECINCT, GET OUT THERE AND CAST YOUR VOTE!

    AND MUCH TO OUR CREW’S DELIGHT, THEY ALL VOTED WITH US ON THE SAME MACHINE THAT KRIS AQUINO HAD JUST USED. HEEHEEHEE. HOW’S THAT FOR BRAINLESS TRIVIA? :)

    May 10, 2010 | 12:49 pm

     
  19. Marketman says:

    We just went over to our precinct voting area, which has 3 PCOS machines, and roughly 2,400+ registered voters, and as of 1:10 p.m. there were just a few voters present, no more lines of any length, and I suspect they will be able to handle all other voters this afternoon with no problem.

    With 80 voters per hour per machine, the issues in jampacked precincts you see on television reports are really a result of bad planning and a refusal to think more about queueing theory. Even if an elderly grandmother takes 30 minutes (as reported in the tv shows to fill in their ballot), that will simply take up chair and table space, but NOT delay the obtaining of a ballot nor the casting of the vote on the PCOS machine. If sufficient physical space was set aside for EACH PCOS machine and the voters assigned to it, things should NOT get out of hand. Also, a crush of folks hit some precincts early today, causing inevitable lines to snake slowly… might be best to wait until 2 or 3 p.m. to go vote, but still be prepared to wait in case things are going slower than they should be…

    May 10, 2010 | 1:21 pm

     
  20. Marketman says:

    Senator Aquino finally casts his vote after waiting in line in his Tarlac precinct for some 4 hours or so. And since the PCOS machine in his precinct isn’t working, they will enter the votes later… egads, if only 1/2 of 1% of PCOS malfunction, I would be squirming even more if I were a Smartmatic representative that the machine of the possible next President had failed. Yowks. :(

    May 10, 2010 | 2:13 pm

     
  21. Ana (AdoboRice.com) says:

    I believe the surveys. Well, at least not those commissioned by the party or the candidates themselves. What I don’t believe in is that people should lose faith early on in their candidates if they don’t prove to be popular. And then voting for the lesser evil instead of voting for who they think is best – which is not what a democratic vote is about!

    May 10, 2010 | 3:10 pm

     
  22. kahlil says:

    Paano naman, may trending nangyayari eh. Porket uninformed yung kadamihan ng mga filipino, eh aabusihin ng mga certain groups na may interest sa kanilang pambatong manok. Example nalang tulad ng ABS, kung tignan mo ng maigi at i kompara mo ang coverage nila sa campaign period at sa GMA, makikita mo talaga ang katotohanan. PEACE yo!

    May 10, 2010 | 3:25 pm

     
  23. mbw says:

    I voted and was moved that there were a lot of senior citizens who came and cast their votes. They were led immediately into the polling room and didn’t have to line up (or was there any single-file line at all!—nada!) But nevertheless, the PCOS machine worked okay and so the waiting was the only hassle this day.

    May 10, 2010 | 3:32 pm

     
  24. tulip says:

    I went to the polling precinct at 8am and was done by 8:45am. It could have been only 20-30 minutes but there was a long queue for senior citizens. There were about 5 clustered precincts(with 5 precincts per cluster), and each cluster has a PCOS machine, that’s 5 machines for about 2,000 registered voters. We were lucky! At the clustered precinct where I am registered, there were only 600 registered voters.
    As of this afternoon, no reports of unaccepted ballots throughout the day. And since 2pm, no more queues/lines, it just takes up to 10-15 minutes to complete the process(filling up, submitting,indelible, signing and thumb mark).

    May 10, 2010 | 4:00 pm

     
  25. chrisb says:

    There are 3 clustered precincts in my polling place, thus 3 lines. Line one had an average wait time of 1.5 hours, line two- just 1 hour, and line 3 had a headache-inducing 4-hour wait time. I think it all boils down to how efficient the team of teachers in your precinct is.

    May 10, 2010 | 4:07 pm

     
  26. Sarah says:

    I arrived at out precinct in Pasig at 7:15am and it took me roughly an hour to cast my vote… it was a bit disorganized as some people went to the wrong clusters and cut in line. I’m still quite lucky as our precinct is in Valle Verde and the place is airconditioned so the wait wasn’t that uncomfortable. I can only imagine how how a crowded public school classroom would be.

    Regarding the surveys, I think those who question them are either unfamiliar with statistical methods or are being intellectually dishonest.

    May 10, 2010 | 4:18 pm

     
  27. reena says:

    you’re lucky, it took me four hours before i could vote and after 4 hours i looked at the machine and only 169 ballots were recorded…after 4 freaking hours. GMA’s legacy — automated elections?!!! yeah right!!!

    May 10, 2010 | 4:18 pm

     
  28. tulip says:

    Oh and by the way, it was fun watching the PPCRV watcher and the one manning the PCOS machine say, Congratulations! at the same time clapping there hands every time a ballot is accepted in the machine. Hehehe. But it was indeed a relief to us voters. Our ballots were accepted!

    May 10, 2010 | 4:18 pm

     
  29. ttabud says:

    Omigod, even Erap did not vote for Binay, hwahaha. Kaboom! Mar Roxas FTW!

    May 10, 2010 | 5:10 pm

     
  30. alicia says:

    From your mouth (or blog!) to God’s ears! Here is hoping for a Noy-Mar Victory and a good showing for LP Senators- Noy and Mar are going to need all the help they can get!

    May 10, 2010 | 5:13 pm

     
  31. odie says:

    Mr. MM, I’m so sorry to say that I was not able to cast my Noy/Mar vote today, due to health problems. However, i join our countrymen in praying for good election results and most importantly a PEACEFUL one, even after May 10.

    May 10, 2010 | 6:09 pm

     
  32. wayne says:

    GOOO PHILIPPINES… my prayers are with you, my kabayans!

    May 10, 2010 | 6:32 pm

     
  33. Artisan Chocolatier says:

    We were at our precinct at 7a.m. and I got priority no. 56. My ballot was accepted at 10:10a.m. with my ballot recorded as the 63rd counted by the pcos machine. Seven precincts were clustered in our classroom with close to 1,000 voters.

    The delay in our cluster can be attributed to the following:
    1. Some of the official watchers (like PPCRV) arrived late to witness the assembly of the pcos machine. Yes, they started to assemble the pcos machine only at 730a.m. today. Thank God, the pcos machine booted up properly. I only hope the pcos machine reads the ballots correctly, since no testing was done. Voting started at about 8a.m.

    2. The gridlock was in the process required to find one’s name, affixing ones signature, thumbmark, and indelible ink.

    May 10, 2010 | 7:02 pm

     
  34. Artisan Chocolatier says:

    Did they use the UV lamps to check the ballots at your precinct?

    May 10, 2010 | 7:39 pm

     
  35. Marketman says:

    OMG, THE RESULTS ARE ALREADY COMING OUT AND ARE AVAILABLE ON-LINE. ASSUMING THESE ARE ACCURATE REFLECTIONS OF THE REAL VOTING, I AM QUITE IMPRESSED!

    For our precinct and four others, with ONE PCOS machine, the votes are already tallied and on the website of the Commission on elections, just go to ibanangayon.ph and look for election results (though I suspect the site will slow or crash later this evening as the number of hits increases):

    Results in our precincts (which had less than 600 voters total, and is located in Makati):

    President:
    Aquino 56%
    Teodoro 21%
    Estrada 10%
    Villar 5%

    Vice-President:
    Roxas 47%
    Binay 42%
    Fernando 5%
    Legarda 2%

    Isn’t that just cool?! Amazing, actually… I am referring to the process, not the results. :)

    May 10, 2010 | 8:07 pm

     
  36. Nanna says:

    Go Mar! I don’t actually care much about Aquino~ I want Gibo to win but it seems implausible..But go Mar!

    May 10, 2010 | 8:15 pm

     
  37. Eileen says:

    MM, I think we voted in the same area in Makati. My husband and I were surprised that there was NO LINE in our particular precinct! We finished everything in 15 minutes (just like you)! Kudos to the volunteers who made our voting experience a pleasant one! :)

    May 10, 2010 | 8:30 pm

     
  38. Artisan Chocolatier says:

    Just tried going to ibanangayon.ph and i got a 403 forbidden message

    May 10, 2010 | 8:56 pm

     
  39. Marketman says:

    Artisan, it might just be high traffic. Mrs. MM is on and checking as many precincts as she can… On television, they are reporting roughly 1% of vote counted, and it is a VERY tight race for VP! I hope that’s because the Visayas hasn’t been sending in results yet… :) I am thrilled and fascinated by the process of reporting…

    May 10, 2010 | 9:05 pm

     
  40. Artisan Chocolatier says:

    MM, Yes, finally got in ibanangayon.ph website and my clustered precincts have not uploaded the results. I too am actually impressed with how fast the results are coming in, that its making me jittery with how MAR is not pulling ahead of Binay so far.

    May 10, 2010 | 9:51 pm

     
  41. Marketman says:

    OMG, with 38.85% of precincts, with total of 14.5 million votes, the unofficial results are Aquino – 40.4%, Estrada – 25.7%, Villar 14.0% and Teodoro 10.6%.

    For VP results so far are Binay – 40.6%, Roxas – 36.7%, Legarda 10.7%.

    Estimated voter turnout is 75%.

    YIPES. Where are more of those Roxas votes??? Hopefully the Visayas hasn’t reported as much as Luzon. :(

    May 10, 2010 | 10:15 pm

     
  42. charlie says:

    History in the making… The first automated national election results would be available 12 hours after polling places closed… AWESOME!!!!

    May 10, 2010 | 10:30 pm

     
  43. tulip says:

    I checked my clustered precinct, and here’s the result:

    PRESIDENT:
    1. Aquino 53%
    2. Estrada 19%
    3. Teodoro 15%
    4. Villanueva 5%
    5. Gordon 4%
    6. Villar 4%

    VICE-PRES:
    1. Roxas 40%
    2. Binay 35%
    3. Legarda 14%
    4. Fernando 8%
    5. Manzano 1.5%
    6. Yasay 1.5%

    I was surprised to see Roxas really topped it. I did voted for him but the village is known to be a Legarda “Baluarte” since she’s a registered voter within the village but at the boundary side which is already Malabon area, thus she voted outside the village premise.

    Go for Roxas!

    May 10, 2010 | 10:30 pm

     
  44. Dennis says:

    @tulip – you must be from Univ. Hills in Caloocan. Kinda grew up in the area.

    I’m beginning to worry about Mar. I hope he makes a comeback of sort. God Bless the Philippines.

    May 10, 2010 | 11:03 pm

     
  45. JMLR says:

    What?! There are more people who voted for Binay as VP than for Aquino as Pres.?

    Hmm… It took me almost 5 hours to cast my vote because of a line that advances 5 steps every 30 mins. You can see that the “pakikisama” value is very much alive in situations such as this. A person, standing a few meters ahead of you, who was alone for the first 2-3 hours, suddenly claims that all these 8 -10 friends and/or relatives, who are now with him, were there since 7:30 in the morning and that they just left for whatever reason and were now arriving one by one.

    I’m physically and emotionally exhausted from all that standing and talking/arguing with the people I mentioned above.

    Still, I’m contented with the fact that I was able to cast my vote. Even if my candidates don’t win at least I know I voted for those who in my opinion are the most qualified.

    May 11, 2010 | 12:13 am

     
  46. adam says:

    It doesn’t look too promising for Roxas right now. Fingers crossed that overnight brings better news…

    May 11, 2010 | 12:59 am

     
  47. natie says:

    the provinces might have more Roxas votes

    May 11, 2010 | 4:08 am

     
  48. ted says:

    Either PulseAsia or SWS who came out with the survey the week before the election that Binay and Roxas are in a statistical tie, with expected voters for Legarda going to Binay (probably due to Chiz Escudero’s endorsement). Was Roxas camp got overly confident that this may not happen due to his strong lead in the survey the month before?

    May 11, 2010 | 4:17 am

     
  49. Marketman says:

    COULDN’T GET ANY SLEEP LAST NIGHT! YIKES, THIS IS LIKE WATCHING A HORSERACE IN PAINFUL SLOW MOTION, WITH SOMEONE QUICKLY CREEPING UP THE BLIND SIDE AND POSSIBLY SNATCHING VICTORY…

    VP Race, with roughly 3/4 of votes in, though notably, Cebu and some other region VI and VII do not seem to have reported most of their results:

    Binay 12,025,425 or 39.51%
    Roxas 11,213,563 or 36.84%
    Legarda 3,259,963 or 10.71%

    Data from Comelec unofficial count. And Estrada FORGOT to vote for Binay! :)

    Here’s more:

    Regions VI, VII and VIII have only reported roughly 71% of votes, while NCR and parts of Luzon have reported almost 87% or so. What this means is Roxas has to win by huge margins of more than 20% in remaining precincts in regions VI, VII or VIII to make up the current 2.67% gap to catch up with Binay. :(

    May 11, 2010 | 7:14 am

     
  50. Artisan Chocolatier says:

    Up to this time, my cluster has not uploaded the results. But base on the trend of the other clusters in the entire Cebu, MAR is ahead by wide margins.

    I hope MAR wins in the end.

    May 11, 2010 | 7:54 am

     
  51. natie says:

    i feel a bit stunned…

    May 11, 2010 | 8:00 am

     
  52. Bubut says:

    it took me more than 3 hours before i was able to vote. i brought with me a towel, drinking water and a book to read. i missed lunch though i left my line to buy some bread at the local bakery. then when i was about to cast my ballot, for 3rd time the pcos machine is not registering / counting my vote. i was so nervous that when i give my 4th try, and it will not be counted and my ballot will be spoiled. Finally, on the 4th try, i saw the ‘congratulations’ mark, and i felt that i won in the Lotto.

    May 11, 2010 | 9:42 am

     
  53. Jenny says:

    i was able to complete the entire process in 15 minutes :D like bubut, i cam prepared with fan, towel, water and a book. happily didn’t get to use any of them! there were no lines in my school. i voted past 3pm. unhappily though, Binay is still leading MAR :(

    May 11, 2010 | 10:39 am

     
  54. Blaise says:

    I was able to cast my vote after 3 hours. There was already a long queue of lines when I arrived at my precinct at quarter to 10 in the morning. I was number 80. It’s a good thing that I have prepared my mindset for the long lines, as well as a jug of water, fan and two sandwiches! :)

    Actually in my precinct, what made the lines queuing longer were those “pasaway” voters who would always step out of their line and only come back when the line moves nearer to the voting center. A lot of people from the back who never left the line would get angry as they though those people are just cutting through. There were also those occasional war-freaks.

    May 11, 2010 | 11:02 am

     
  55. Artisan Chocolatier says:

    I salute Sen. Manny Villar for conceding to Sen. Noynoy Aquino.

    May 11, 2010 | 12:09 pm

     
  56. JMLR says:

    Blaise, at least it took you only 3 hours to vote. I do agree that others would occasionally leave the line to get food, move their tired muscles, etc. In our case, there were those who were obviously cutting in line. They claim that they’ve been there since 7:30AM. We were just 3-5 people behind their group and we arrived before 11AM. They want us to believe that in 2 1/2 hours only 5 people lined up for the same precinct. Obviously, one or only two of them arrived a few minutes before us and they started allowing their friends and relatives to cut in. When confronted they exaggerated the time they were there thinking that nobody can question this anymore. My mother and sisters went to the precinct at 7:30 AM and they were already way ahead of us in the line. In fact I didn’t see them anymore and we just communicated through text. I was already in line for 3 hours when one of them arrived and the people behind us asked where she was going. She said she was just looking for her daughter. She found her daughter and initially appeared to be just talking with her. Then 30 mins later, she was already in line and advancing like the rest of us. Of course, she was able to cast her vote ahead of me.

    This is the first time that I have experienced this. In past elections, it usually takes my family and I less than 15 minutes to cast our votes. I don’t mind the long queue. What I do mind are the unruly and rude people who don’t know how to fall in line. The waiting time would have been shorter if people only followed the rule. COMELEC needs to get more machines and remove the cluster.

    Nobody among the accredited volunteers was helping us. The PPCRV volunteers started attending to our line only after 2PM. I finally had the indelible ink on my finger before 4PM.

    In spite of this, I will still practice my right as a citizen of this country and will go out and vote in future elections.

    May 11, 2010 | 12:34 pm

     
  57. captain_yagit says:

    I guess all those talks about automated cheating, failure of elections, implosion of Comelec’s automated system, and other doomsday scenarios are now moot and academic.

    Those were all just fodder for the media who lapped it up to sell more newspapers or to gain more viewers/listeners.

    May 11, 2010 | 1:17 pm

     
  58. Enteng says:

    I’m still hoping Mar will catch up…

    May 11, 2010 | 1:55 pm

     
  59. loveTOeat says:

    it’ll be sad if binay wins =<

    still crossing my fingers for roxas, but chances are getting slimmer and slimmer

    May 11, 2010 | 3:26 pm

     
  60. sandee says:

    In my limited and short voting experience, I’ve never cared so much about the vice-presidency until now and never felt so strongly about a tandem as I do about Noy-Mar. So I’m really saddened and shocked at Binay’s significant lead. I won’t say win just yet, as I’m still hoping.

    May 11, 2010 | 4:08 pm

     
  61. Gerry says:

    PCOS machines weren’t the problem in our area, it was the lack of space inside the barangay hall that limited the number of voters who could vote simultaneously. We should have used the adjacent church as well the the covered basketball court to provide more space for the voters. Both areas were easy to secure so I don’t know why they didn’t use it.

    May 11, 2010 | 4:53 pm

     
  62. wayne says:

    i guess the outcome is “OK”… aquino is just stepping up the plate, so let’s see – i’ll give him the benefit of the doubt…

    too bad for roxas – he would have been the reinforcement in a ‘concrete tandem’…
    can’t say anything about binay, as he did really well with makati… hope he can handle the big stage though :-s

    i can’t believe estrada will be finishing second…
    does this mean if roxas hadn’t stepped down from his presidential ambitions, estrada would have won a landslide decision?! what is wrong with these people standing in line for hours just to vote erap?!?

    anyway, let’s see where we go from here…

    May 11, 2010 | 5:52 pm

     
  63. leigh says:

    I want to start an anti-Chiz group i.e. will never vote for Chiz for whatever position he runs for in the future! I think the Binay thing is partly his fault. I can’t stand to see Binay as VP plus we have Junjun Binay already proclaimed as mayor of Makati and Abby Binay as congresswoman. ARGH!!!

    May 11, 2010 | 8:38 pm

     
  64. Mimi says:

    I read that GMA won a congressional seat in her hometown? What?! Puwede ba mag-run ang current president? Is there not a law that you must resign from your post when you are running for any office? And there also should be a law that convicted felons – pardoned and jail term served- should be banned from any public office. Also, there should be a law which prohibits mother/father-son/daughter running for top seats in the same province/city. Or a law which limits combined terms of office, as in parang retirement clause na whatever public office you hold basta total combined maximum of say 25-30 years, then permanently retired ka na from running at all. I just cannot believe the election results in some provinces and cities, mass amnesia of voters!

    May 11, 2010 | 9:30 pm

     
  65. mardie c",) says:

    millions of people still voted for Erap — what? have they forgotten already what he did to our country during his term of office? it is just so sad…and scary. I am happy to note though that 52% in the visayas region voted for Aquino and 54% for Roxas. Now, if only Erap will concede….

    May 11, 2010 | 9:44 pm

     
  66. pinkytab says:

    Binay – OH NO! I think Mar Roxas was the only credible candidate even including the presidentials.

    May 11, 2010 | 10:22 pm

     
  67. Topster says:

    Now I’m beginning to regret not voting Mar! I cannot fathom having Binay as our VP! In my opinion, Mr. Binay epitomizes the politico, politicong sobrang yumaman at ayaw ng mawala sa pwesto. Ergo, the son: mayor; daughter: congresswoman!

    May 11, 2010 | 11:12 pm

     
  68. sandee says:

    I also feel that Chiz’s endorsement of Binay played a major role. After dropping out of the presidential race, I’m sure he’s already thinking about elections 6 years into the future. It would be harder to go up against a VP. And I really dislike his ad “Ang bise presidente ko hindi ilustrado…”

    May 12, 2010 | 10:04 am

     
  69. Katrina says:

    good luck to Binay, It’s a bold step-running for VP, I’ve lived in Makati for quite some time and found it much safer. Mind you, I am by no means living in one of the nice subdivisions, but back when I was studying, It was relatively safe to walk the streets of Makati at night-and even now, .I can see that most of you have voted for Mar and I completely respect that. I just felt I had to say that-in my opinion-a candidate who’s been a Mayor for several years, has a much better track record than a newscaster.

    I support them both-Ninoy and Binay…..NOYBI all the way

    May 12, 2010 | 12:02 pm

     
  70. captain_yagit says:

    I, too, am amazed and disappointed at the shortness of memory of our voters not only in the case of Erap’s strong showing. Just take a look at the names leading the national and local tallies. Most of them are old familiar names in politics. (Including that of Noynoy Aquino.)

    Without a doubt, I am happy with the conduct of our first automated national elections. But, the joy is somehow dampened by the results. Same names, same faces coming from political dynasties.

    We never learn.

    May 12, 2010 | 12:29 pm

     
  71. Lava Bien says:

    I’m glad Binay won, looks like it anyway. Sana maging parang Makati na ang maraming lugar heheheheh. Binay, Ibanag of Isabela represents!!!!!

    May 12, 2010 | 10:05 pm

     
  72. marilen says:

    I am praying against all odds, na manananalo pa rin si Mar.

    May 13, 2010 | 5:42 am

     
  73. Lex says:

    Spoke to someone who was part of the Roxas campaign recently. The problem with Roxas was that he camp was so competent of his early lead months ago. I think there was major panic a week before elections because sws polls showed Binay in equal footing with Roxas. I was amazed at the black propaganda put out against Binay just before elections. Unsavory texts were sent out in the wee hours of the morning from unknown sources. I was never a big fan of Binay but it was definitely getting foul.
    According to inside sources, his camp concentrated their campaign against Loren Legarda, regarding her as his biggest threat. They forgot about the little brown guy who is very popular among the masses. It is a pity because Roxas would have been a good vice president. This is a perfectly example of how to never letting one’s guards down in war. It does not help that his wife is unpopular.

    May 13, 2010 | 8:51 am

     
  74. Katrina says:

    @ Lex, I read something simillar to that, that Mar’s camp was a bit too complacent and Binay was downplaying all the while. He started campaigning heavily in areas where he was least popular. (if I’m not mistaken, Leyte was one of them)

    May 13, 2010 | 9:10 am

     
  75. Lava Bien says:

    @ Katrina-copy that. i understand, that’s why i’d rather have gordon win kaya lang poor minded people eh mahihirapan syang intindihin. To win any game, one has to know the rule,eh si Gordon, Binay, Bayani, magaling magpa implement ng rules, may disiplina. Ayaw ng mga poor minded pinoy yung ganun, mahirap wala kasing patience kaya they will remain poor. Ang marereklamo laging talo kahit anong game ng buhay pa yan.

    Kudos to DICK GORDON though and the other guy for pushing the automated election, nahirapan tuloy ang Maguindanao mandugas ng boto heheheheheh.

    Mabuhay po ang Pilipinas… good to be home!

    May 13, 2010 | 11:05 am

     
  76. Katrina says:

    @ Lava Bien; i have faith in Binay, If he was meant to win, I hope he lives up to his reputation of being an “action man”. I don’t like Erap myself-and cannot for the life of me-fathom why they would let him run for President again. Pero Binay I support talaga, I like that of all the VP candidates, he’s the one who doesn’t make a spectacle of himself. they say na mali daw ung pamamaraan ni Binay, na lahat na raw ng miyembro ng pamilya nya naupo sa pwesto,Kung titignan po nating maigi, halos lahat ng kandidato galing sa angkan ng mga pulitiko-at ipinagmamalaki pa nila ito.

    May 13, 2010 | 1:17 pm

     
  77. sandee says:

    I too have received those text messages about Binay. If they came from Mar’s camp, they were certainly in poor taste. But what I really find irritating is Binay claiming that if he loses, some cheating happened, or “special ops” in their terms. Overcoming that lead of less than 800k votes, with probably 5 million votes still untallied, is not even close to impossible.

    May 13, 2010 | 1:39 pm

     
  78. JMLR says:

    Sandee, weeks before the election, Noynoy was also saying that the only way for him to lose was through cheating. He even brought up the idea of another people power revolution if this happens. When Cardinal Rosales said that people power was not necessary, Noynoy even went on air saying that it’s not the Cardinal but the voice of the people who will decide… talk about conditioning the minds of the people. It was so arrogant and irresponsible of him to be saying these things.

    May 13, 2010 | 2:01 pm

     
  79. Shieka, Dubai says:

    I lived in Makati for more than 10 years. If Binay’s slogan ‘Kay Binay, Gaganda ang Buhay’ means the welfare society that is Makati City, well I think that’s what those who voted for him’s idea of a better life is. His governance of Makati is characterized by dole outs, Binay branding (from kids’school bags,street signs, etc) and ofcourse, his family’s perpetuation in power.The Binay’s have been there since Cory’s time. Ofcourse, he will also be eyeing the presidency in 2016.
    Despite the huge tax collection, only the Ayala Ave looks first class, the outskirts are nothing but 3rd class communities.
    Bayani was right in saying that Makati streets easily get flooded because of clogged drainage. Makati streets are not safe either. I’ve been twice a victim bracelet snatching in the Guadalupe bridge area. Illegal settlers abound there. Our brake lights have been robbed two times as well because our car was parked in the street. Drug dealing is not checked as our next-door neighbor is a shabu pusher.
    Ask around how Mayor’s permits for buildings are issued for I am not in a position to speak about this as I my information is not firsthand.
    I am for Mar as Vice President! And looking back at past articles to try to find answers on why Binay is winning makes me shiver — how dirty politics really is. Was Mar really junked by the Aquinos? My Facebook newsfeed doesn’t give me the same emotions from people who were cheering for Noynoy right after his candidacy was announced… is it because it’s too early to celebrate or something else?
    The media isn’t even looking back on this issue of the Aquinos’ junking of Mar.

    May 13, 2010 | 2:32 pm

     
  80. captain_yagit says:

    Makati was already progressive long before Jejomar Binay became mayor. Big businesses already had their headquarters located in Makati even during the Marcos era. It was already known as the central business district long before Cory replaced duly-elected mayors after EDSA 1 with her chosen OIC’s. Binay was the Cory-appointed OIC for Makati.

    This is just to set the record straight for those too young to remember. It’s quite a reach to even bundle him in the same league that includes the likes of Dick Gordon, Bayani Fernando, and some others who turned their backward municipalities into progressive towns or cities.

    May 13, 2010 | 2:53 pm

     
  81. Katrina says:

    Makati was progressive back in the 70’s-true. But Binay’s programs that have benefitted the residents of Makati has earned him their trust and loyalty.

    May 13, 2010 | 3:38 pm

     
  82. JMLR says:

    Just go beyond the CBD and you’ll see how poorly managed the city is. I agree with Shieka and captain_yagit. You cannot attribute of the progress of Makati to Binay. I would attribute the improvement of the CBD to the Ayala family and other major corporations who have helped improve the place. It was easy for Binay to provide welfare to the residents of Makati because the largest tax payers in the country are in Makati. Yet, in spite of these, look at what Shieka (a Makati resident) wrote above.

    Before Gordon, Olongapo was only known as a sin city. Before Bayani, Marikina was known as a massacre town. Before Binay, Makati was already known as the premiere business district of the country.

    May 13, 2010 | 11:30 pm

     
  83. natie says:

    May 14, 2010 | 7:52 am

     
  84. wayne says:

    i gotta give props to the filipino people… i don’t think germans would have had the patience to wait half a day to cast their vote..!

    seems to me that pinoys really want to be part of a change…

    mabuhay ang pilipinas – salamat sa mga bumoto!!!

    May 14, 2010 | 7:57 am

     
  85. Topster says:

    I’ve to agree that Mr. Binay should not credit himself with the so called “prosperity” of Makati. Makati is the Financial Capital of the Philippines ever since it was moved there after WW2 from its original place of Escolta, Manila!

    Also, Mr. Binay’s opponents are right in saying that Makati has 2 faces. One of the glossy high rises of the CBD and gated subdivisions and the other the slums in the majority of the city. Mr. Binay (like most politicos) fashions himself like the Pharaohs of Ancient Egypt. They have their names cut in stone and written in papyri for all the world to see. They put their offspring in places of power and are groomed as their successors. Our local version: politicos put their names in tarpaulin streamers for every project, health center, lighting, waiting shed, barangay hall etc made under their administration. Their spouses, children are made their replacement once their 3rd term is finished.

    If the Mayor is really clean, his yellow card could accommodate not only Makati residents but probably another 5 more cities in the NCR as well. Barya lang yan pero made to look as benefits for the residents, hayun magkakautang na loob tuloy! I’ve lots of friends and relatives who are long term Makati residents and they are really not amused by his way of handling his fiefdom, err kingdom este, city. Parang binibili ang tao!

    As stated in my earlier post, I deeply regret not voting Sen. Roxas. I guess a lot of folks share my sentiment as well.

    May 14, 2010 | 9:47 am

     
  86. linda says:

    MM, I’m waiting in anticipation for the results of the election,I hope Mar wins! Keeping my fingers cross………………………..

    Have a lovely weekend!

    May 14, 2010 | 11:22 am

     
 

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